Thomas Friedman strongly dislikes Iran

or thats the impression one would get hearing him talk about Iran on KVIE today evening. Iran was only a footnote in his very interesting discourse about energy policies, American competitiveness and the Bush administration among other things.

When nudged by the host to comment on Iran, he unleashed a rather sharp and bitter attack almost sounding like a regular warmonger. He called Iran a typical oil-state (or something to that effect) and branded it a state that encourages suicide bombers. Well I was taken aback to say the least, after all one expects your favorites to say what one likes. Well anyway I decided to check on Iran's credentials, as recorded in CIA's factbook no less, and compare them with those of another oil-state that comes to mind first - Saudi Arabia.

Some facts that were news to me: starting with population, Iran seems to be doing much better (depending on how you look at it) with a growth rate of 1.1% (Saudi's 2.18%) and a fertility rate of 1.8 children born/woman (Saudis' have an astronomical 4 children born/woman). Iran is also doing marginally better with both male and female literacy, but nothing worth mentioning here. Most importantly, suffrage in Iran is universal while that in Saudi Arabia is restricted to men. Politically, the Saudi's have no parties apart from the royals (works for us, eh?) while Iran has plenty, though their existence is supposed to be tied to their toeing the mullahs' line. Last but not the least, Iran spends 3.3% of its GDP on military expenditure compared to Saudi Arabia's 10%.

Of course, like any conscientious analyst, I include only those figures which help to prop up my worldview, so savor them with a pinch of salt (but even if you were to bother digging deeper, it is unlikely that you would come up anything different).

Friedman seems terribly worried about Iran's nukes what with his speculation that the Shia Persians getting a nuke is almost certain the spur the Sunni Arabs to get their own. Of course, he is too smart to not anticipate the question "But havent the Israelis had nukes for years?" and he answered it himself but he did such a lame job that I ask again:

"But havent the Israelis had nukes for years, Mr Friedman?".

A liberal democracy without a middle class?

A New York Times article of May 19, 2006 says that a lot of middle class Iraqis, who can afford to leave the country for desinations like Jordan and Syria, are leaving. Of course, there is no news in this piece of information - what else can you expect in a society fraught with a civil-war-type situation? What makes it interesting is the political context in Iraq where democracy is struggling to get on its feet.

It is safe to assume that democracy in any country rests on the shoulders of a sizeable middle class who have a strong stake in social stability. A good example of the contrary is Afghanistan, where middle-class professionals fled during the turbulent 80s and 90s, which is making the task of rebuilding the social infrastructure difficult now. I suppose the condition in Palestine cannot be too different. Arguably, a good proportion of the expatriates in places like these return when the situation improves; but then an initial failure to return feeds off itself - the lack of a big middle class dampens the political will for stability, which in turn keeps more expats away.

Now, put this in the context of the Americans' avowed desire to establish a democratic society in Iraq. Is the attainment of regime change valuable enough to offset the political price of a middle-class vacuum and a slothful democratic process as a consequences? Now, as the Americans are rattling their sabres and crying for regime change in Iran, I wonder if any lessons have been taken from Iraq.

Why is Gov. Schwarzenegger taking away money from public transport

in his 2006-07 budget proposal? As per the proposal, $4.1 b in gasoline sales taxes over the next 10 years will be diverted to pay off transportation bonds. Prior to this proposal, this money was earmarked for defraying operating costs of California's public transport system. "This at a time when demand for mass transit is soaring", according to Jenny Oropeza, D-Carson.

While I always believed that public transport in the United States sucks because of the ubiquity of personal vehicles (one of my aquaintances explained her perception of public transit as "something that people with no other means of transport use"), the converse may as well be true. It is tempting to conspirasize how the auto-related industry uses its clout to make sure that public transit sucks. Reminds me of the time when I was a college student sitting in a corporate office of a mineral water (bottled water) company, negotiating with a manager the terms of a sponsorship that he would provide to a campus event in return for them putting up a retail kiosk at the venue. He asked me what drinking water source existed near the venue and whether it worked. Well, we had the rusty but trusty good old water cooler, and yes it worked most of the time. "Then you have to make sure it doesnt work during the event so people have no option to buy our water", said the manager, half joking.

A book called 'Twentieth Century Sprawl: Highways and the Reshaping of the American Landscape' documents the case of Denver in the early part of the 1900s where increased automobile use and changing policies pushed the public transit system to abandonment. It seems unlikely that public transit today can diminish from its already meagre status, but the Governor's proposal doesnt help it either.

For the record, the bottlers did good business and the cooler worked without fail.

Gujarat's chief minister is in Israel

as part of an Indian delegation to an agricultural exhibition headed by Sharad Pawar, where he voiced the need for Gujarat to import agricultural technologies and water management techniques from Israel. Israel is the poster-boy for the "green desert" dream, and Narendra Modi only follows in the line of generations of Indian leaders who have dreamt of replicating the Israel model in dry parts of India.

In the 1990s, Gujarat hired the services of Tahal Consulting Engineers of Israel to prepare a plan for its water resources. The voluminous "Tahal report" is still a ubiquitous feature in Gujarat water circles though it would be interesting to know how religiously, if at all, it is being implemented.

Interestingly, the Gujarat CM gave a presentation titled "More Crop Per Drop". This term was widely used by advocates of efficient irrigation techniques at International Water Management Institute in Vallab Vidyanagar. I wonder if that group was had anything to do with the CM's presentation.

It is heartening to see the CM talk about efficient agriculture and water management, given the fact that political discussion on water in Gujarat start and end with Narmada.

A very interesting passage

from Ahmed Rashid's Taliban. He compares the boys who made up the Taliban with the men of the Mujahideen.

"Many of the Taliban had spent their lives in refugee camps in Baluchistan and NWFP province of Pakistan, did not even know the history of their own coutry or the history of the jihad against the Russian. These boys were a world apart from the Mujaheddin whom I had got to know during the 1980s - men who could recount their tribal and clan lineages, remembered their abandoned farms and valleys with nostalgia and recounted legends and stories from Afghan history. These boys were from a generation who had never seen their country at peace...and had no memories of their tribes, their elders, their neighbours."

This situation is analogous to so many social movements that I cant think of any one immediately.